By EDWARD WONG
NYT：January 21, 2010
BEIJING – China announced Thursday that its gross domestic product in fourth quarter 2009 grew by 10.7 percent year-on-year, up from a revised growth rate of 9.1 percent in the third quarter. China’s economy is surging forward even as many other nations, including the United States, are still trying to punch through the global recession.
Over the whole year, the Chinese economy grew by 8.7 percent, surpassing the 8 percent growth-rate benchmark that Chinese leaders assert is necessary to maintain social stability. If China keeps up that growth rate, it will likely replace Japan as the world’s second-largest economy by the end of this year.
The National Bureau of Statistics also announced Thursday that industrial production in December grew by 18.5 percent and retail sales by 17.5 percent. The December consumer price index rose by 1.9 percent and producer price index by 1.7 percent.
The numbers were generally in line with earlier predictions. Chinese officials are clearly worried about inflation and asset bubbles, especially in real estate, but the latest economic statistics will no doubt fuel the triumphant tone of recent official pronouncements on the Chinese economy. Much of that commentary has emphasized the contrast between China’s relatively successful weathering of the global recession and the severe downturn that still afflicts Western economies.
A front-page signed editorial on Jan. 5 in the People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, praised the Party for its far-sighted economic policies and lauded the Chinese economic model.
“When the financial crisis forced the neo-liberal economic system into a dead end, the shortcomings of the capitalist system was exposed for all to see,” the editorial said. “But a China that was pushed to a crossroads proved its ‘national capabilities’ in taking on a crisis by answering with the advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.”
Chinese officials remain concerned about inflation and excessive bank lending, as well as loan defaults. In recent weeks, they have acted on several front to address those issues.
On Jan. 7, the central bank raised a key interest rate, the first time it had done so in nearly five months. Five days later, regulators ordered state-owned banks to set aside a larger share of their deposits as reserves against failed loans. Investors and analysts had not expected such a move until the second quarter of this year.
On Wednesday, Bank Of China ordered its credit officials to halt any new renminbi loans in an attempt to curb overly fast lending growth in the first few weeks of this month. Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Hong Kong that he expected to see a sharp drop in new renminbi lending, but that his organization had not ordered it.
Economists said China would move to further tighten bank lending to confront inflationary fears and swelling asset bubbles.
“The first half of 2010 is likely to be characterized by gradual policy tightening, chiefly through administrative measures,” Jing Ulrich, director of the China equities and commodities division of J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, wrote in a report on Thursday. “Concerns about capital inflows and the health of the export sector will limit the scope for interest rate tightening, but we do expect to see a moderation in new bank loans and the use of reserve requirements to manage the volume of money supply.”
Economic numbers released Thursday also showed China’s export industry is still responsible for much of its growth. Some Chinese economists have said China must restructure its economy so that it begins to rely more on domestic consumption and less on exports, which are greatly affected by the overall health of the world economy.
Other countries, especially the United States, have also said the artificially low value of renminbi gives China an unfair advantage in exports, and governments will likely press China much harder this year to strengthen its currency, something that China has resisted doing.
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中国、世界第2位の経済大国へ
中国は木曜日、2009年第4四半期のGDP成長率が前年同期比10.7%だった、と発表した。
第3四半期は9.1%だった。
中国経済は、米国を含む多くの国が今も世界不況を脱出を試みるなかで、急成長を続けている。
中国経済は一年間で8.7%成長し、中国首脳陣が社会を安定させるために必要だとする、ベンチマーク成長率の8%を上回った。
中国がこの成長率を維持すれば、今年中に日本を抜いて世界第2位の経済大国となるだろう。国家統計局も木曜日、12月の工業生産は18.5%、小売売上は17.5%増加したと発表した。12月の消費者物価は1.9%、生産者価格は1.7%上昇した。
以上の数値は、概ね先の予測と一致している。
中国当局者は、インフレと資産バブル（特に不動産）を明白に恐れているが、最新の経済統計は間違いなく、中国経済に関する最近の公式発表の誇らしげなトーンを煽るだろう。
コメントの大部分は、中国経済は欧米経済に影響を及ぼす世界不況と深刻な景気後退を乗り切ることに比較的成功した、と強調している。
1月5日の人民日報の一面に掲載された署名社説は、中国共産党の先見の明のある経済政策を賞賛し、中国の経済もデルを絶賛した。
「金融危機がネオリベラルな経済システムを追い詰めた時、資本主義的システムの欠陥が万人の前で暴かれた。しかし、岐路に立たされた中国は、中国的特長ある社会主義システムの利点を以って応え、危機に取り組む『国力』を証明した」
中国当局は引き続き、インフレと過剰な銀行貸出、ならびに融資のデフォルトについて懸念している。
過去数週間、中国当局はこれらの問題への対策を実施してきた。
1月7日、中国人民銀行は5ヶ月近くぶりに金利を引き上げた。
その5日後、規制当局は国営銀行に不良債権に対する預金率の引き上げを命じた。
投資家とアナリストは、今年第2四半期までこのような対策は行われないだろう、と考えていた。
水曜日、中国人民銀行は、今月最初の数週間における貸出急増を抑制しようと、人民元建てローンの新規貸出停止を信用担当者に命じた。
CBRCのLiu Mingkang長官は香港で、人民元建ての新規貸し出しは急激に減少するだろうが、CBRCはこれを命じていないと述べた。
エコノミストは、中国はインフレ懸念と膨張する資産バブルの対策に、銀行貸出を更に引き締めるべく行動するだろう、と述べた。
「2010年上半期は、主に行政措置を通じた、段階的な政策引き締めが特徴となりそうだ」と香港JPモルガンの中国株式商品部門のJing Ulrichディレクターは、木曜日のレポートに記した。
「資本流入と輸出業の健全性に関する懸念により、金利引き締めの範囲が制限されるだろう。しかし我々は、マネーサプライを管理するための、新規銀行貸出の緩和や支払準備制度の行使が行われるだろうと予測している」
木曜日に公表された経済統計も、経済成長の大部分を担っているのは今も輸出業だ、ということを示した。
一部の中国のエコノミストは、中国は内需依存度を高め、世界経済の全体的健全性に大きく影響される輸出への依存度を軽減するために、経済を再建しなければならないと述べている。
他の国、特に米国も、人民元の為替レート操作は輸出の不正アドバンテージだとしており、中国は抵抗すると思われるが、各国政府は今年、人民元の値上げを中国により厳しく迫るだろう。
2010-01-21
No Chance Against China
Google's defeat foretells the day when Beijing rules the world.
By Martin Jacques | NEWSWEEK
Published Jan 16, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Jan 25, 2010
The blunt truth is that most Western forecasters have been wrong about China for the past 30 years. They have claimed that Chinese economic growth was exaggerated, that a big crisis was imminent, that state controls would fade away, and that exposure to global media, notably the Internet, would steadily undermine the Communist Party's authority. The reason why China forecasting has such a poor track record is that Westerners constantly invoke the model and experience of the West to explain China, and it is a false prophet. Until we start trying to understand China on its own terms, rather than as a Western-style nation in the making, we will continue to get it wrong.
The Google affair tells us much about what China is and what it will be like. The Internet has been seen in the West as the quintessential expression of the free exchange of ideas and information, untrammeled by government interference and increasingly global in reach. But the Chinese government has shown that the Internet can be successfully filtered and controlled. Google's mission, "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful," has clashed with the age-old presumption of Chinese rulers of the need and responsibility to control. In this battle, there will be only one winner: China. Google will be obliged either to accept Chinese regulations or exit the world's largest Internet market, with serious consequences for its long-term global ambitions. This is a metaphor for our times: America's most dynamic company cannot take on the Chinese government—even on an issue like free and open information—and win.
Moreover, as China becomes increasingly important as a market and player, what happens to the Internet in China will have profound consequences for the Internet globally. It is already clear that the Google model of a free and open Internet, an exemplar of the American idea of the future, cannot and will not prevail. China's Internet will continue to be policed and controlled, information filtered, sites prohibited, noncompliant search engines excluded, and sensitive search words disallowed. And where China goes, others, also informed by different values, are already and will follow. The Internet, far from being a great big unified global space, will be fragmented and segmented. Another Western shibboleth about the future will thereby fall. It will not signal the end of the free flow of information—notwithstanding all the controls, the Internet has transformed the volume and quality of information available to Chinese citizens—but it will take place more on Chinese than Western terms.
Click here to find out more!
If we want to understand the future, we need to go back to the drawing board. China—as we can see with increasing clarity—is destined to become the world's largest economy and is likely in time to far outdistance the U.S. This process will remorselessly shift the balance of power in China's favor. Just as once a large share of the American market was a precondition for a firm being a major global player, this mantle will increasingly be assumed instead by the Chinese market, except to a far greater extent because its population is four times the size. Furthermore, China's expanding economic clout means that its government is enjoying rapidly growing global authority. It can even take on Google and be sure of victory.
Facing up to the fact that China is very different from the West, that it simply does not work or think like us, is proving far more difficult. A classic illustration is the West's failure to understand the strength and durability of the Chinese state, which defies all predictions of its demise, remains omnipresent in Chinese lives, still owns most major firms, and proves remarkably adept at finding new ways to counter the influence of the U.S. global media. Western observers typically explain the intrusiveness of the Chinese government in terms of paranoia—and in a huge and diverse country the rulers have always seen instability as an ever-present danger—but there is a deeper reason why the state enjoys such a high-profile role in Chinese society.
It is seen by the Chinese not as an alien presence to be constantly pruned back, as in the West, especially the U.S., but as the embodiment and guardian of society. Rather than alien, it is seen as an intimate, in the manner of the head of the household. It might seem an extraordinary proposition, but the Chinese state enjoys a remarkable legitimacy among its people, greater than in Western societies. And the reason lies deep in China's history. China may call itself a nation-state (although only for the past century), but in essence it is a civilization-state dating back at least two millennia. Maintaining the unity of Chinese civilization is regarded as the most important political priority and seen as the sacred task of the state, hence its unique role: there is no Western parallel.
Chinese modernity will not resemble Western modernity, and a world dominated by China will not resemble our own. One consequence is already apparent in the developing world: the state is back in fashion; the Washington Consensus has been eclipsed. In this new world, Chinese ways of thinking—from Confucian values and their notion of the state to the family and parenting—will become increasingly influential. Google's fate is a sign of the world to come, and the sooner we come to appreciate the nature of a world run by China, the better we will be able to deal with it.
Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order.
---------------
“未来の支配者”中国と敵対する者にチャンスはない
2010年1月25日、米誌ニューズウィークは「中国と敵対する者にはいかなるチャンスもない」と題した記事でグーグルの中国撤退問題に触れ、「戦いの勝者は中国だ」と論じた。以下はその内容。
過去30年、西側の中国に関する予測は十中八九間違っていた。これは疑いの余地がない事実である。西側メディアは、「中国経済の成長率は誇張されたもの」「国の統制力に陰りが見え始めている」「海外メディアの報道が中国共産党の権力を弱らせている」などと報じて来たが、これらはすべて西洋人の考え方に基づいたものに過ぎない。
インターネットは、西洋では「思想と情報の自由な交換」の象徴と見られてきたが、中国政府はこれを効果的に制御できることを世間に知らしめた。グーグルの「世界中の情報を取りまとめ、誰もが簡単にアクセスして有益な情報が得られる」という理念は、中国の統治者が抱く「統制の必要と責任」という古い観念と衝突した。
だが、この戦いの勝者は「中国」以外にない。グーグルは中国当局の要求に従うか、この世界最大の市場から撤退するかの2つに1つだ。西洋人は中国政府の統制を「恐れ」によるものと解釈しているが、それは違う。中国人にとって国家とは「社会の化身」であり「守護者」でもある。中華文明を完全な形で継承することが、国の最も重要な政治任務で神聖な使命なのだ。
中国が米国を抜いて世界最大の経済国家になることは、もはや時間の問題。中国が支配する新しい世界では中国人の考え方（儒教的な思想から国家観、家庭のあり方や子供の養育に関してまで）が主流になってくる。我々は早いうちからその本質を知るべきだ。そうすれば、もっと上手く中国と付き合えるようになるだろう。
By Martin Jacques | NEWSWEEK
Published Jan 16, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Jan 25, 2010
The blunt truth is that most Western forecasters have been wrong about China for the past 30 years. They have claimed that Chinese economic growth was exaggerated, that a big crisis was imminent, that state controls would fade away, and that exposure to global media, notably the Internet, would steadily undermine the Communist Party's authority. The reason why China forecasting has such a poor track record is that Westerners constantly invoke the model and experience of the West to explain China, and it is a false prophet. Until we start trying to understand China on its own terms, rather than as a Western-style nation in the making, we will continue to get it wrong.
The Google affair tells us much about what China is and what it will be like. The Internet has been seen in the West as the quintessential expression of the free exchange of ideas and information, untrammeled by government interference and increasingly global in reach. But the Chinese government has shown that the Internet can be successfully filtered and controlled. Google's mission, "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful," has clashed with the age-old presumption of Chinese rulers of the need and responsibility to control. In this battle, there will be only one winner: China. Google will be obliged either to accept Chinese regulations or exit the world's largest Internet market, with serious consequences for its long-term global ambitions. This is a metaphor for our times: America's most dynamic company cannot take on the Chinese government—even on an issue like free and open information—and win.
Moreover, as China becomes increasingly important as a market and player, what happens to the Internet in China will have profound consequences for the Internet globally. It is already clear that the Google model of a free and open Internet, an exemplar of the American idea of the future, cannot and will not prevail. China's Internet will continue to be policed and controlled, information filtered, sites prohibited, noncompliant search engines excluded, and sensitive search words disallowed. And where China goes, others, also informed by different values, are already and will follow. The Internet, far from being a great big unified global space, will be fragmented and segmented. Another Western shibboleth about the future will thereby fall. It will not signal the end of the free flow of information—notwithstanding all the controls, the Internet has transformed the volume and quality of information available to Chinese citizens—but it will take place more on Chinese than Western terms.
Click here to find out more!
If we want to understand the future, we need to go back to the drawing board. China—as we can see with increasing clarity—is destined to become the world's largest economy and is likely in time to far outdistance the U.S. This process will remorselessly shift the balance of power in China's favor. Just as once a large share of the American market was a precondition for a firm being a major global player, this mantle will increasingly be assumed instead by the Chinese market, except to a far greater extent because its population is four times the size. Furthermore, China's expanding economic clout means that its government is enjoying rapidly growing global authority. It can even take on Google and be sure of victory.
Facing up to the fact that China is very different from the West, that it simply does not work or think like us, is proving far more difficult. A classic illustration is the West's failure to understand the strength and durability of the Chinese state, which defies all predictions of its demise, remains omnipresent in Chinese lives, still owns most major firms, and proves remarkably adept at finding new ways to counter the influence of the U.S. global media. Western observers typically explain the intrusiveness of the Chinese government in terms of paranoia—and in a huge and diverse country the rulers have always seen instability as an ever-present danger—but there is a deeper reason why the state enjoys such a high-profile role in Chinese society.
It is seen by the Chinese not as an alien presence to be constantly pruned back, as in the West, especially the U.S., but as the embodiment and guardian of society. Rather than alien, it is seen as an intimate, in the manner of the head of the household. It might seem an extraordinary proposition, but the Chinese state enjoys a remarkable legitimacy among its people, greater than in Western societies. And the reason lies deep in China's history. China may call itself a nation-state (although only for the past century), but in essence it is a civilization-state dating back at least two millennia. Maintaining the unity of Chinese civilization is regarded as the most important political priority and seen as the sacred task of the state, hence its unique role: there is no Western parallel.
Chinese modernity will not resemble Western modernity, and a world dominated by China will not resemble our own. One consequence is already apparent in the developing world: the state is back in fashion; the Washington Consensus has been eclipsed. In this new world, Chinese ways of thinking—from Confucian values and their notion of the state to the family and parenting—will become increasingly influential. Google's fate is a sign of the world to come, and the sooner we come to appreciate the nature of a world run by China, the better we will be able to deal with it.
Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order.
---------------
“未来の支配者”中国と敵対する者にチャンスはない
2010年1月25日、米誌ニューズウィークは「中国と敵対する者にはいかなるチャンスもない」と題した記事でグーグルの中国撤退問題に触れ、「戦いの勝者は中国だ」と論じた。以下はその内容。
過去30年、西側の中国に関する予測は十中八九間違っていた。これは疑いの余地がない事実である。西側メディアは、「中国経済の成長率は誇張されたもの」「国の統制力に陰りが見え始めている」「海外メディアの報道が中国共産党の権力を弱らせている」などと報じて来たが、これらはすべて西洋人の考え方に基づいたものに過ぎない。
インターネットは、西洋では「思想と情報の自由な交換」の象徴と見られてきたが、中国政府はこれを効果的に制御できることを世間に知らしめた。グーグルの「世界中の情報を取りまとめ、誰もが簡単にアクセスして有益な情報が得られる」という理念は、中国の統治者が抱く「統制の必要と責任」という古い観念と衝突した。
だが、この戦いの勝者は「中国」以外にない。グーグルは中国当局の要求に従うか、この世界最大の市場から撤退するかの2つに1つだ。西洋人は中国政府の統制を「恐れ」によるものと解釈しているが、それは違う。中国人にとって国家とは「社会の化身」であり「守護者」でもある。中華文明を完全な形で継承することが、国の最も重要な政治任務で神聖な使命なのだ。
中国が米国を抜いて世界最大の経済国家になることは、もはや時間の問題。中国が支配する新しい世界では中国人の考え方（儒教的な思想から国家観、家庭のあり方や子供の養育に関してまで）が主流になってくる。我々は早いうちからその本質を知るべきだ。そうすれば、もっと上手く中国と付き合えるようになるだろう。
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