日本自然災害和核危機的雙重災難證明，在全球經濟的重要領域，特別是汽車和科技供應鏈上，日本依然舉足輕重。
數個鄰國可能因日本的重建而看到需求獲得提振。
不過，據Moody’s Analytics經濟學家馬休 - 瑟科斯塔(Matthew Circosta)和馬特 - 魯賓遜(Matt Robinson)的報告，就實際經濟影響來說，日本的災難并不那么要緊，至少對位于亞洲飛速發展地區的鄰國來說是這樣。即使是那些與日本有著緊密貿易關系的經濟體也不太可能因此遭受嚴重打擊。報告說，更有甚者，數個鄰國還可能因日本的重建而看到需求獲得提振。
受影響最嚴重的國家和地區包括：韓國、臺灣和泰國，它們都是日本的主要貿易伙伴，與日本分享著高科技和汽車生產線。據Moody’s Analytics的預測，它們每個的年度GDP都會下降0.2個百分點。盡管如此，預計韓國仍會增長4.4%，臺灣4.7%，泰國4.8%，所以影響并不是很大。
對于該地區最大的經濟體中國和印度，以及相比它們較小的越南，預計它們的增長不會因日本的災難而有所變化。Moody’s Analytics認為，貿易中心新加坡和香港可能會因日本災難造成的混亂而受到影響。不過，目前為止這并沒有導致穆迪下調這些國家和地區的增長預期。
數個經濟體今年甚至可能會受到提振。穆迪認為，澳大利亞、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞和新西蘭可能會加快增長，原因是日本的恢復重建工作將刺激食品和原材料需求。農業大國新西蘭受到提振是因為該國可以彌補日本的食品供應缺口。其他國家則是因為可以滿足日本的自然資源需求。舉例來講，印度尼西亞對日出口有三分之一是石油、天然氣和鐵礦石。
2011-04-21
Obama: We don't want next Intel born in China
President addresses budget, immigration issues at Facebook offices
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — President Barack Obama used an appearance Wednesday at Facebook Inc.’s headquarters in Palo Alto, Calif., to pick apart a budget plan put forward by Republican lawmakers, and to encourage “comprehensive” immigration reform that continues to draw skilled foreign workers to the United States.
“We want more Andy Groves here, in the United States,” Obama said during the town-hall meeting, in reference to the Intel Corp. INTC +7.80% co-founder and Hungarian immigrant. The president advocated an immigration policy that allows for entrepreneurs like Grove to take root in this country.
“We don’t want them starting Intel in China, or starting it in France,” he added.
Obama before a friendly crowd
The president addressed a crowd of 700 people at Facebook's offices in Palo Alto, Calif., answering questions on the U.S. deficit, Rep. Paul Ryan's proposed budget plan, immigration and investment in education.
Technology firms in Silicon Valley and elsewhere in America have long lobbied for reforms that would let them hire more skilled, foreign workers using H-1B visas — which are currently capped.
Though demand for H-1B visas waned during the recession, it is widely expected to regain momentum. Obama held a meeting Tuesday to discuss immigration reform, which was attended by Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg.
Obama also was asked during his event Wednesday to address the ongoing debate with Republicans over the best way to cut spending as part of a budget compromise.
Under a Republican plan passed by the House of Representatives last week, some $6 trillion in government spending would be cut over the next decade by paring back programs such as Medicaid, and by lowering tax rates for wealthy Americans and businesses.
“I guess you could call that bold; I would call it short-sighted,” the president remarked. “Their vision is radical.”
He continued: “Nothing is easier than solving a problem on the backs of people who are poor … or don’t’ have lobbyists or don’t have clout.”
As an alternative, Obama touted cutting spending on items such as unnecessary military-weapon systems, increasing efficiency and rethinking the tax cuts implemented under his predecessor, George W. Bush.
Referring to the economic situation under President Bill Clinton during the 1990s — a period when Obama joked that many of the youthful attendees at Facebook were “still in diapers” — Obama noted that tax rates apparently did little to slow the economy.
“If we go back to those rates alone, that by itself would do a lot” to address the deficit, he said.
Obama turned to Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, recently ranked 35th on the Forbes list of wealthiest Americans, and pointed out that such a tax plan would mean “people like you and me” will pay more in taxes.
“I know you’re OK with that,” he added.
Obama did not directly address the recent decision by ratings firm Standard & Poor’s to downgrade its outlook on U.S. debt. Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has called the move a “political judgment.”
Obama began his appearance on a light-hearted note, saying he was proud to have compelled Zuckerberg, normally dressed in a T-shirt, to wear a jacket and tie for the event. “I’m very proud of that,” the president said.
At the conclusion of his appearance, Zuckerberg presented Obama with the same sort of hooded sweatshirt that the young chief executive is often seen wearing, adorned with the Facebook logo.
Closely held Facebook, which currently has more than 600 million users of its online social-networking service, is expected to undertake a high-profile initial public offering next year.
By John Letzing, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — President Barack Obama used an appearance Wednesday at Facebook Inc.’s headquarters in Palo Alto, Calif., to pick apart a budget plan put forward by Republican lawmakers, and to encourage “comprehensive” immigration reform that continues to draw skilled foreign workers to the United States.
“We want more Andy Groves here, in the United States,” Obama said during the town-hall meeting, in reference to the Intel Corp. INTC +7.80% co-founder and Hungarian immigrant. The president advocated an immigration policy that allows for entrepreneurs like Grove to take root in this country.
“We don’t want them starting Intel in China, or starting it in France,” he added.
Obama before a friendly crowd
The president addressed a crowd of 700 people at Facebook's offices in Palo Alto, Calif., answering questions on the U.S. deficit, Rep. Paul Ryan's proposed budget plan, immigration and investment in education.
Technology firms in Silicon Valley and elsewhere in America have long lobbied for reforms that would let them hire more skilled, foreign workers using H-1B visas — which are currently capped.
Though demand for H-1B visas waned during the recession, it is widely expected to regain momentum. Obama held a meeting Tuesday to discuss immigration reform, which was attended by Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg.
Obama also was asked during his event Wednesday to address the ongoing debate with Republicans over the best way to cut spending as part of a budget compromise.
Under a Republican plan passed by the House of Representatives last week, some $6 trillion in government spending would be cut over the next decade by paring back programs such as Medicaid, and by lowering tax rates for wealthy Americans and businesses.
“I guess you could call that bold; I would call it short-sighted,” the president remarked. “Their vision is radical.”
He continued: “Nothing is easier than solving a problem on the backs of people who are poor … or don’t’ have lobbyists or don’t have clout.”
As an alternative, Obama touted cutting spending on items such as unnecessary military-weapon systems, increasing efficiency and rethinking the tax cuts implemented under his predecessor, George W. Bush.
Referring to the economic situation under President Bill Clinton during the 1990s — a period when Obama joked that many of the youthful attendees at Facebook were “still in diapers” — Obama noted that tax rates apparently did little to slow the economy.
“If we go back to those rates alone, that by itself would do a lot” to address the deficit, he said.
Obama turned to Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, recently ranked 35th on the Forbes list of wealthiest Americans, and pointed out that such a tax plan would mean “people like you and me” will pay more in taxes.
“I know you’re OK with that,” he added.
Obama did not directly address the recent decision by ratings firm Standard & Poor’s to downgrade its outlook on U.S. debt. Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has called the move a “political judgment.”
Obama began his appearance on a light-hearted note, saying he was proud to have compelled Zuckerberg, normally dressed in a T-shirt, to wear a jacket and tie for the event. “I’m very proud of that,” the president said.
At the conclusion of his appearance, Zuckerberg presented Obama with the same sort of hooded sweatshirt that the young chief executive is often seen wearing, adorned with the Facebook logo.
Closely held Facebook, which currently has more than 600 million users of its online social-networking service, is expected to undertake a high-profile initial public offering next year.
從數字看東日本大地震
瓦礫，1800萬噸
東日本大地震之后，宮城縣災害對策本部從衛星照片上看到得慘狀觸目驚心——30多平方公里的海岸區域內被海嘯吞噬的14萬棟房屋廢墟連成一片，周堆積著1800萬噸垃圾，流木、廢鐵和殘破家具層層疊疊。
如此巨大數量的垃圾該如何處理呢?
“很多人提議就地燒掉，這簡直是天方夜譚”，日本廢棄物資源循環學會的專家如是說。經過鹽水浸泡的木材和垃圾焚燒后可能釋放出具有毒性的戴奧辛物質，大規模的開放式焚燒或可引發公害。已經遭遇了多重打擊的災區顯然無法承受這樣的風險。而采取通過爐內高溫焚燒的形式不但成本巨大，所需的基本設施也不無滿足。
似乎眾多方法中最為可行的是填埋。但這又牽涉到一個新的瓶頸問題，即土地的確保。日本國內法規定，垃圾的處理原則上在當地政府管轄區域內進行。阪神大地震后神戶市在臨海地區建立了規模巨大的填埋場，以處理近2000萬噸的巨額垃圾。然而，對于地形狹窄、土地緊缺的宮城縣而言，這決不是個簡單的命題。事實上，石卷市因土地不足甚至連簡易住宅用地都無法確保，更不要說垃圾填埋場。而且鄰近的各村鎮也同樣在海嘯中破壞嚴重，根本沒有余力相互施救。“通過大型貨船將垃圾運往別處填埋或許是方案之一?”(同上專家)。這一問題最終如何解決，我們不得而知。
廢車，15萬輛
與瓦礫同樣惱人的還有散亂在各地的15萬輛殘破汽車。這一數字相當于宮城縣境內登陸汽車總數的1成以上。震后，中央政府通過特別法規免除了繁雜的廢車手續，同時宣布由國家全額負擔處理費用。希望以此盡快解決廢車問題。然而，現場的情景似乎并沒有那么順利。
記者在從宮城縣的松島出發、經名取、巖沼至仙臺，一路上到處都是廢車。巖沼市河川區。道路兩旁每個2、300米就會看到車體扭曲、變形的乘用車，且車體上統一貼著國土交通省的通告：“移動此車，或無法移動均請聯系”。在這個地區，凡是帶有車牌、可特定車主身份的汽車(即便是殘骸)也都被視作私有財產。因此，政府無權擅自處理，只能放置、等待車主聯系。
而讓受災的個人自行解決這個問題也并不現實。事實上，地震之后絕大多數車主都沒有得到保險公司的任何賠償。
日本國內各大保險公司的汽車合同中幾乎無一例外的將地震、海嘯和火山等天災引發的汽車損傷從補償對象中刪除。用戶要想在天災后獲得賠償必須簽訂“地震特約”。但記者翻看了某保險公司的30多頁厚的宣傳手冊，直到最后才在《約定款項》中發現了用極小字號標出的“地震特約”字樣。這種“特約”項目所需費用全部由保險公司承擔，因此保險行業始終態度消極。據說日本國內加入“特約”的消費者只占日本全體的1%。而且，3.11之后各保險公司已經紛紛停止了《特約》的銷售。行政和個人均無能為力，這15萬輛廢車何時才能清理干凈?!
以上兩個沉重的數字壓的宮城縣各受災區苦不堪言。但是，不渡過這個難關“復興”無從談起。
失業，7萬8千人
與讓人觸目驚心的廢墟相比，這場災難對東北三縣經濟的打擊則更加無法計算。據野村綜合研究所預測今后1年內巖手、宮城、福島3縣失業者將超過7萬8千人，這相當于東北地區勞動人口的約10%。而這一數字在6年后將超過10萬，其中在海嘯中被徹底摧毀的農林漁業從業者占8成。
產業界蒙受的巨大損失是失業的根本原因。
海嘯和福島核電站對農、林、漁業的打擊是毀滅性的。仙臺市若林區農協的遠藤先生介紹： “對大片的瓦礫、垃圾和海水倒灌的鹽堿化我們毫無辦法，要恢復至少需要5年時間”。石卷、女川、巖沼，這些國內知名的漁港基本處于全滅狀態。而工業地帶也在這次大災中飽受摧殘。年產能力84萬噸、印刷紙領域內位居世界首位的日本造紙石卷工廠倉庫倒塌、投資630億日元的最尖端印刷設備未能難免，短期內無法繼續生產。上月末起，日本國內已經開始出現印刷紙張的短缺，很多書籍的出版甚至不得不延期。仙臺的麒麟啤酒工廠，4架400千升級儲酒罐倒塌，相當于252萬瓶大罐啤酒流入海中，廠房則被淤泥淹沒。富士面包剛剛投資80億日元興建的生產線浸水，300名工人重新得到工作恐怕尚待時日……
震后1月有余，我們能看到的也僅僅是“冰山一角”。如果將產業鏈斷絕對日本制品產生的中長期因素也考量在內，這次災難給日本經濟的打擊或許永遠無法統計(人民網發自日本宮城縣)。
東日本大地震之后，宮城縣災害對策本部從衛星照片上看到得慘狀觸目驚心——30多平方公里的海岸區域內被海嘯吞噬的14萬棟房屋廢墟連成一片，周堆積著1800萬噸垃圾，流木、廢鐵和殘破家具層層疊疊。
如此巨大數量的垃圾該如何處理呢?
“很多人提議就地燒掉，這簡直是天方夜譚”，日本廢棄物資源循環學會的專家如是說。經過鹽水浸泡的木材和垃圾焚燒后可能釋放出具有毒性的戴奧辛物質，大規模的開放式焚燒或可引發公害。已經遭遇了多重打擊的災區顯然無法承受這樣的風險。而采取通過爐內高溫焚燒的形式不但成本巨大，所需的基本設施也不無滿足。
似乎眾多方法中最為可行的是填埋。但這又牽涉到一個新的瓶頸問題，即土地的確保。日本國內法規定，垃圾的處理原則上在當地政府管轄區域內進行。阪神大地震后神戶市在臨海地區建立了規模巨大的填埋場，以處理近2000萬噸的巨額垃圾。然而，對于地形狹窄、土地緊缺的宮城縣而言，這決不是個簡單的命題。事實上，石卷市因土地不足甚至連簡易住宅用地都無法確保，更不要說垃圾填埋場。而且鄰近的各村鎮也同樣在海嘯中破壞嚴重，根本沒有余力相互施救。“通過大型貨船將垃圾運往別處填埋或許是方案之一?”(同上專家)。這一問題最終如何解決，我們不得而知。
廢車，15萬輛
與瓦礫同樣惱人的還有散亂在各地的15萬輛殘破汽車。這一數字相當于宮城縣境內登陸汽車總數的1成以上。震后，中央政府通過特別法規免除了繁雜的廢車手續，同時宣布由國家全額負擔處理費用。希望以此盡快解決廢車問題。然而，現場的情景似乎并沒有那么順利。
記者在從宮城縣的松島出發、經名取、巖沼至仙臺，一路上到處都是廢車。巖沼市河川區。道路兩旁每個2、300米就會看到車體扭曲、變形的乘用車，且車體上統一貼著國土交通省的通告：“移動此車，或無法移動均請聯系”。在這個地區，凡是帶有車牌、可特定車主身份的汽車(即便是殘骸)也都被視作私有財產。因此，政府無權擅自處理，只能放置、等待車主聯系。
而讓受災的個人自行解決這個問題也并不現實。事實上，地震之后絕大多數車主都沒有得到保險公司的任何賠償。
日本國內各大保險公司的汽車合同中幾乎無一例外的將地震、海嘯和火山等天災引發的汽車損傷從補償對象中刪除。用戶要想在天災后獲得賠償必須簽訂“地震特約”。但記者翻看了某保險公司的30多頁厚的宣傳手冊，直到最后才在《約定款項》中發現了用極小字號標出的“地震特約”字樣。這種“特約”項目所需費用全部由保險公司承擔，因此保險行業始終態度消極。據說日本國內加入“特約”的消費者只占日本全體的1%。而且，3.11之后各保險公司已經紛紛停止了《特約》的銷售。行政和個人均無能為力，這15萬輛廢車何時才能清理干凈?!
以上兩個沉重的數字壓的宮城縣各受災區苦不堪言。但是，不渡過這個難關“復興”無從談起。
失業，7萬8千人
與讓人觸目驚心的廢墟相比，這場災難對東北三縣經濟的打擊則更加無法計算。據野村綜合研究所預測今后1年內巖手、宮城、福島3縣失業者將超過7萬8千人，這相當于東北地區勞動人口的約10%。而這一數字在6年后將超過10萬，其中在海嘯中被徹底摧毀的農林漁業從業者占8成。
產業界蒙受的巨大損失是失業的根本原因。
海嘯和福島核電站對農、林、漁業的打擊是毀滅性的。仙臺市若林區農協的遠藤先生介紹： “對大片的瓦礫、垃圾和海水倒灌的鹽堿化我們毫無辦法，要恢復至少需要5年時間”。石卷、女川、巖沼，這些國內知名的漁港基本處于全滅狀態。而工業地帶也在這次大災中飽受摧殘。年產能力84萬噸、印刷紙領域內位居世界首位的日本造紙石卷工廠倉庫倒塌、投資630億日元的最尖端印刷設備未能難免，短期內無法繼續生產。上月末起，日本國內已經開始出現印刷紙張的短缺，很多書籍的出版甚至不得不延期。仙臺的麒麟啤酒工廠，4架400千升級儲酒罐倒塌，相當于252萬瓶大罐啤酒流入海中，廠房則被淤泥淹沒。富士面包剛剛投資80億日元興建的生產線浸水，300名工人重新得到工作恐怕尚待時日……
震后1月有余，我們能看到的也僅僅是“冰山一角”。如果將產業鏈斷絕對日本制品產生的中長期因素也考量在內，這次災難給日本經濟的打擊或許永遠無法統計(人民網發自日本宮城縣)。
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