網絡視頻和電視的平臺戰爭

我們正處在大規模平臺戰爭中，爭奪網絡視頻和電視的未來。有四個意見不同且經常對立的玩家，各有千秋。接下來三年的關鍵是誰將贏得提供收視服務的勝利，從最小的智能手機屏幕到最大的智能電視。下面是這四個平臺。

谷歌

有著安卓、谷歌電視和YouTube，谷歌想稱霸各個領域。安卓已領跑智能手機界，每天有55萬臺活躍設備。他們在涉足平板領域，盡管與iPad相比，銷售數字與安卓手機初期相似。即使谷歌電視慘敗，公司打算讓安卓成為智能電視的壟斷操作系統。這一市場大開，雅虎的早期努力不理想，也沒有其他競爭者（Flingo，Boxee）瓜分這一領域。由于YouTube提供獨特方便的內容庫，谷歌有途徑為這一市場提供幫助。

說到谷歌電視，下一版本應更易于操縱、搜索和查看視頻。通過涉足安卓市場，他們已向前邁出一大步，允許大量應用下載，十分有用。希望他們能少些以一當十的方法，更加關注將網絡視頻與已有的電視體驗整合。最好還能與標準遠程控制，只有怪人想在客廳里擺個一直開著的鍵盤。最后，需要將成本降至99美元或更低，關注蘋果電視或Roku，而不是“TV PC”。

蘋果

蘋果目前在平板設備界擁有霸主地位，且擁有智能手機的大量市場份額。蘋果電視目前一直令人失望。蘋果已賣出數百萬臺機頂盒，但蘋果目前還未進軍電視這一市場。視頻和音樂不同，我們會反復聽最喜歡的歌，但多數視頻只會看一遍，分享然后忘卻。蘋果需要開發租賃或訂閱服務以與其他三家競爭。

亞馬遜

亞馬遜目前還沒有智能手機和電視，但隨著今秋Kindle Fire的發布，勢必會擾動平板界。價格不到iPad和安卓平板的一半，2012年10英寸平板將上市，加上租賃和播送視頻的服務，亞馬遜將對蘋果和谷歌造成挑戰。亞馬遜打賭未來平板界將由視頻消費設備稱霸，并打算將客戶鎖定在亞馬遜即時視頻（租賃）和重大實時視頻（訂閱服務）。有趣的是，盡管亞馬遜的Kindle閱讀軟件盛行于眾多設備上，他們的VOD設備卻不支持蘋果IOS。



微軟

世界上有5000萬臺XBOX 360s放在電視機前面，微軟有成為主角的潛力。公司在其智能手機，計算機平臺上構建簡潔界面——Metro。還在其所有設備，包括XBOX360上推出Zune視頻服務。XBOX目前有對傳統電視信息的播放收集功能，比其它平臺對電視有更寬闊的支持。然而微軟未對XBOX提供可用的網絡源視頻，限制了其有用性。自身缺少windows系統的平板設備以及Windows phones的表現不佳，都令微軟落后于谷歌和蘋果。但XBOX360如此強大，市場潛力巨大，不可能令微軟出局。

目前，谷歌拔得頭籌，蘋果緊隨其后，如果Kindle Fire如預期取得成功，亞馬遜可能占據領先地位。作為旁觀者，我預測Kindle Fire將是本季賣的最好的電子產品。

至于微軟，除非Windows 8 和Windows phone獲得巨大成功，否則很難借助XBOX的基礎成為統治平臺。但這只是早期的猜測，未來的路還很長。

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Platform Wars: Internet Video Vs. TV

There’s battle lines being drawn. Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong. Young people speaking their minds, Getting so much resistance from behind.—Buffalo Springfield

We’re in the middle of a huge platform war for future of internet video and TV. There are four players with different and often opposing viewpoints, each with a shot at success. The story over the next three years will be which one will provide a winning service to enable viewing across every glowing rectangle in our lives – from the smallest smart phones to the biggest smart TV. Below are the four platforms, ranked by my own current likelihood of their success – along with some of the interesting quirks and challenges that remain.

Google
With Android, Google TV and YouTube, Google wants to be everywhere. Android already leads the smart phone race, with 550,000 devices activated every day. They’re trailing in the tablet space, although sales figures compared to the iPad are eerily similar to the early days of Android phones. And even though GoogleTV has been a flop, the company is angling to have Android become the dominant operating system for Smart TVs – with GoogleTV coming along for the ride. That market’s wide open, as Yahoo’s early efforts falter, and none of the other contenders (Flingo, Boxee) separating themselves from the pack. And with YouTube providing a unique and desirable library of content, Google has a lever to use to aid adoption. To date, however, Google has opted for Youtube ubiquity vs. scarcity – and I don’t see that changing.

Speaking of GoogleTV, the next version (due out real soon now) should make it easier to navigate, discover and consume video. They’ve already taken a big step forward by embracing the Android marketplace, and allowing a wide variety of apps to load-in and be useful. I’m hoping that they take less of a one-size-fits-all approach, and focus more on integrating the web video into the already-existing TV experience in most people’s homes. And they better make it work with a standard remote control – only the geeks want a full-on keyboard in their living room. Finally, they need to bring the cost down to $99 or less – and focus on AppleTV and Roku, not the “TV PC”.

Apple

The company currently has a dominant position in tablets, and owns significant smartphone mindshare and marketshare. AppleTV to date has been disappointing. The company has sold millions of the settop box, but as the smarts move into the TV, Apple (

NSDQ: AAPL) has yet to enter the market. There’s little doubt that it will, though. But video is different from music : We’ll listen to our favorite songs over and over again, but most videos are viewed once, shared and then forgotten. Apple needs a rental or subscription service to truly compete with the other three here.

Amazon

The company has no smartphone or TV presence, but is poised to disrupt the tablet world this fall with the Kindle Fire. At less than half the price of other iPad and Android tablets – with a 10” model on the way in early 2012 – and with both a rental and streaming video service Amazon (

NSDQ: AMZN) presents an interesting challenge to both Apple and Google (

NSDQ: GOOG). The company is clearly betting that the tablet will be the dominant video consumption device of the future, and is looking to lock its customers into Amazon Instant Video (rental) and Prime Instant Video (subscription service). Interestingly, while the company’s Kindle book-reading software works across competing devices, their VOD services do not support Apple IOS.

Revision 3 CEO Jim Louderback and Google TV's Mario Querioz will be appearing at our next conference,

Microsoft
With 50 million XBOX 360s sitting in front of TV sets around the world, Microsoft has the potential to be a major player here. The company is working to build a single interface across its smart-phone, PC platforms - called Metro. They are also rolling out the Zune video services across all of those devices, along with the XBOX360 as well. The Xbox currently has the broadest collection of traditional TV sources, with broader support for TV Everywhere than the other platforms. Unfortunately Microsoft does not make web-original video available to the Xbox, which limits its usefulness. And the lack of a Windows-based tablet to rival the iPad or Android devices, along with the poor performance of Windows phones put Microsoft behind both Apple and Google. But the Xbox 360 is such a strong device, with such great market penetration, that it’s impossible to count the company out.

It’s early, but Google is in the lead, with Apple nipping at their heels. If the Kindle Fire is as big a success as I think, Amazon may well challenge for the lead. As an aside, I predict that the Fire will be the best selling electronics product this holiday season.

And Microsoft? (NSDQ: MSFT) Unless Windows 8 and the Windows phone become runaway successes, it will be difficult for them to turn their 360 installed base into a dominant platform. But that’s just my early handicapping – there’s a lot of race yet to be run.