By EDWARD WONG
NYT：January 21, 2010
BEIJING – China announced Thursday that its gross domestic product in fourth quarter 2009 grew by 10.7 percent year-on-year, up from a revised growth rate of 9.1 percent in the third quarter. China’s economy is surging forward even as many other nations, including the United States, are still trying to punch through the global recession.
Over the whole year, the Chinese economy grew by 8.7 percent, surpassing the 8 percent growth-rate benchmark that Chinese leaders assert is necessary to maintain social stability. If China keeps up that growth rate, it will likely replace Japan as the world’s second-largest economy by the end of this year.
The National Bureau of Statistics also announced Thursday that industrial production in December grew by 18.5 percent and retail sales by 17.5 percent. The December consumer price index rose by 1.9 percent and producer price index by 1.7 percent.
The numbers were generally in line with earlier predictions. Chinese officials are clearly worried about inflation and asset bubbles, especially in real estate, but the latest economic statistics will no doubt fuel the triumphant tone of recent official pronouncements on the Chinese economy. Much of that commentary has emphasized the contrast between China’s relatively successful weathering of the global recession and the severe downturn that still afflicts Western economies.
A front-page signed editorial on Jan. 5 in the People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Communist Party, praised the Party for its far-sighted economic policies and lauded the Chinese economic model.
“When the financial crisis forced the neo-liberal economic system into a dead end, the shortcomings of the capitalist system was exposed for all to see,” the editorial said. “But a China that was pushed to a crossroads proved its ‘national capabilities’ in taking on a crisis by answering with the advantage of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.”
Chinese officials remain concerned about inflation and excessive bank lending, as well as loan defaults. In recent weeks, they have acted on several front to address those issues.
On Jan. 7, the central bank raised a key interest rate, the first time it had done so in nearly five months. Five days later, regulators ordered state-owned banks to set aside a larger share of their deposits as reserves against failed loans. Investors and analysts had not expected such a move until the second quarter of this year.
On Wednesday, Bank Of China ordered its credit officials to halt any new renminbi loans in an attempt to curb overly fast lending growth in the first few weeks of this month. Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said in Hong Kong that he expected to see a sharp drop in new renminbi lending, but that his organization had not ordered it.
Economists said China would move to further tighten bank lending to confront inflationary fears and swelling asset bubbles.
“The first half of 2010 is likely to be characterized by gradual policy tightening, chiefly through administrative measures,” Jing Ulrich, director of the China equities and commodities division of J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, wrote in a report on Thursday. “Concerns about capital inflows and the health of the export sector will limit the scope for interest rate tightening, but we do expect to see a moderation in new bank loans and the use of reserve requirements to manage the volume of money supply.”
Economic numbers released Thursday also showed China’s export industry is still responsible for much of its growth. Some Chinese economists have said China must restructure its economy so that it begins to rely more on domestic consumption and less on exports, which are greatly affected by the overall health of the world economy.
Other countries, especially the United States, have also said the artificially low value of renminbi gives China an unfair advantage in exports, and governments will likely press China much harder this year to strengthen its currency, something that China has resisted doing.
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中国、世界第2位の経済大国へ
中国は木曜日、2009年第4四半期のGDP成長率が前年同期比10.7%だった、と発表した。
第3四半期は9.1%だった。
中国経済は、米国を含む多くの国が今も世界不況を脱出を試みるなかで、急成長を続けている。
中国経済は一年間で8.7%成長し、中国首脳陣が社会を安定させるために必要だとする、ベンチマーク成長率の8%を上回った。
中国がこの成長率を維持すれば、今年中に日本を抜いて世界第2位の経済大国となるだろう。国家統計局も木曜日、12月の工業生産は18.5%、小売売上は17.5%増加したと発表した。12月の消費者物価は1.9%、生産者価格は1.7%上昇した。
以上の数値は、概ね先の予測と一致している。
中国当局者は、インフレと資産バブル（特に不動産）を明白に恐れているが、最新の経済統計は間違いなく、中国経済に関する最近の公式発表の誇らしげなトーンを煽るだろう。
コメントの大部分は、中国経済は欧米経済に影響を及ぼす世界不況と深刻な景気後退を乗り切ることに比較的成功した、と強調している。
1月5日の人民日報の一面に掲載された署名社説は、中国共産党の先見の明のある経済政策を賞賛し、中国の経済もデルを絶賛した。
「金融危機がネオリベラルな経済システムを追い詰めた時、資本主義的システムの欠陥が万人の前で暴かれた。しかし、岐路に立たされた中国は、中国的特長ある社会主義システムの利点を以って応え、危機に取り組む『国力』を証明した」
中国当局は引き続き、インフレと過剰な銀行貸出、ならびに融資のデフォルトについて懸念している。
過去数週間、中国当局はこれらの問題への対策を実施してきた。
1月7日、中国人民銀行は5ヶ月近くぶりに金利を引き上げた。
その5日後、規制当局は国営銀行に不良債権に対する預金率の引き上げを命じた。
投資家とアナリストは、今年第2四半期までこのような対策は行われないだろう、と考えていた。
水曜日、中国人民銀行は、今月最初の数週間における貸出急増を抑制しようと、人民元建てローンの新規貸出停止を信用担当者に命じた。
CBRCのLiu Mingkang長官は香港で、人民元建ての新規貸し出しは急激に減少するだろうが、CBRCはこれを命じていないと述べた。
エコノミストは、中国はインフレ懸念と膨張する資産バブルの対策に、銀行貸出を更に引き締めるべく行動するだろう、と述べた。
「2010年上半期は、主に行政措置を通じた、段階的な政策引き締めが特徴となりそうだ」と香港JPモルガンの中国株式商品部門のJing Ulrichディレクターは、木曜日のレポートに記した。
「資本流入と輸出業の健全性に関する懸念により、金利引き締めの範囲が制限されるだろう。しかし我々は、マネーサプライを管理するための、新規銀行貸出の緩和や支払準備制度の行使が行われるだろうと予測している」
木曜日に公表された経済統計も、経済成長の大部分を担っているのは今も輸出業だ、ということを示した。
一部の中国のエコノミストは、中国は内需依存度を高め、世界経済の全体的健全性に大きく影響される輸出への依存度を軽減するために、経済を再建しなければならないと述べている。
他の国、特に米国も、人民元の為替レート操作は輸出の不正アドバンテージだとしており、中国は抵抗すると思われるが、各国政府は今年、人民元の値上げを中国により厳しく迫るだろう。
2010-01-21
No Chance Against China
Google's defeat foretells the day when Beijing rules the world.
By Martin Jacques | NEWSWEEK
Published Jan 16, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Jan 25, 2010
The blunt truth is that most Western forecasters have been wrong about China for the past 30 years. They have claimed that Chinese economic growth was exaggerated, that a big crisis was imminent, that state controls would fade away, and that exposure to global media, notably the Internet, would steadily undermine the Communist Party's authority. The reason why China forecasting has such a poor track record is that Westerners constantly invoke the model and experience of the West to explain China, and it is a false prophet. Until we start trying to understand China on its own terms, rather than as a Western-style nation in the making, we will continue to get it wrong.
The Google affair tells us much about what China is and what it will be like. The Internet has been seen in the West as the quintessential expression of the free exchange of ideas and information, untrammeled by government interference and increasingly global in reach. But the Chinese government has shown that the Internet can be successfully filtered and controlled. Google's mission, "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful," has clashed with the age-old presumption of Chinese rulers of the need and responsibility to control. In this battle, there will be only one winner: China. Google will be obliged either to accept Chinese regulations or exit the world's largest Internet market, with serious consequences for its long-term global ambitions. This is a metaphor for our times: America's most dynamic company cannot take on the Chinese government—even on an issue like free and open information—and win.
Moreover, as China becomes increasingly important as a market and player, what happens to the Internet in China will have profound consequences for the Internet globally. It is already clear that the Google model of a free and open Internet, an exemplar of the American idea of the future, cannot and will not prevail. China's Internet will continue to be policed and controlled, information filtered, sites prohibited, noncompliant search engines excluded, and sensitive search words disallowed. And where China goes, others, also informed by different values, are already and will follow. The Internet, far from being a great big unified global space, will be fragmented and segmented. Another Western shibboleth about the future will thereby fall. It will not signal the end of the free flow of information—notwithstanding all the controls, the Internet has transformed the volume and quality of information available to Chinese citizens—but it will take place more on Chinese than Western terms.
Click here to find out more!
If we want to understand the future, we need to go back to the drawing board. China—as we can see with increasing clarity—is destined to become the world's largest economy and is likely in time to far outdistance the U.S. This process will remorselessly shift the balance of power in China's favor. Just as once a large share of the American market was a precondition for a firm being a major global player, this mantle will increasingly be assumed instead by the Chinese market, except to a far greater extent because its population is four times the size. Furthermore, China's expanding economic clout means that its government is enjoying rapidly growing global authority. It can even take on Google and be sure of victory.
Facing up to the fact that China is very different from the West, that it simply does not work or think like us, is proving far more difficult. A classic illustration is the West's failure to understand the strength and durability of the Chinese state, which defies all predictions of its demise, remains omnipresent in Chinese lives, still owns most major firms, and proves remarkably adept at finding new ways to counter the influence of the U.S. global media. Western observers typically explain the intrusiveness of the Chinese government in terms of paranoia—and in a huge and diverse country the rulers have always seen instability as an ever-present danger—but there is a deeper reason why the state enjoys such a high-profile role in Chinese society.
It is seen by the Chinese not as an alien presence to be constantly pruned back, as in the West, especially the U.S., but as the embodiment and guardian of society. Rather than alien, it is seen as an intimate, in the manner of the head of the household. It might seem an extraordinary proposition, but the Chinese state enjoys a remarkable legitimacy among its people, greater than in Western societies. And the reason lies deep in China's history. China may call itself a nation-state (although only for the past century), but in essence it is a civilization-state dating back at least two millennia. Maintaining the unity of Chinese civilization is regarded as the most important political priority and seen as the sacred task of the state, hence its unique role: there is no Western parallel.
Chinese modernity will not resemble Western modernity, and a world dominated by China will not resemble our own. One consequence is already apparent in the developing world: the state is back in fashion; the Washington Consensus has been eclipsed. In this new world, Chinese ways of thinking—from Confucian values and their notion of the state to the family and parenting—will become increasingly influential. Google's fate is a sign of the world to come, and the sooner we come to appreciate the nature of a world run by China, the better we will be able to deal with it.
Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order.
---------------
“未来の支配者”中国と敵対する者にチャンスはない
2010年1月25日、米誌ニューズウィークは「中国と敵対する者にはいかなるチャンスもない」と題した記事でグーグルの中国撤退問題に触れ、「戦いの勝者は中国だ」と論じた。以下はその内容。
過去30年、西側の中国に関する予測は十中八九間違っていた。これは疑いの余地がない事実である。西側メディアは、「中国経済の成長率は誇張されたもの」「国の統制力に陰りが見え始めている」「海外メディアの報道が中国共産党の権力を弱らせている」などと報じて来たが、これらはすべて西洋人の考え方に基づいたものに過ぎない。
インターネットは、西洋では「思想と情報の自由な交換」の象徴と見られてきたが、中国政府はこれを効果的に制御できることを世間に知らしめた。グーグルの「世界中の情報を取りまとめ、誰もが簡単にアクセスして有益な情報が得られる」という理念は、中国の統治者が抱く「統制の必要と責任」という古い観念と衝突した。
だが、この戦いの勝者は「中国」以外にない。グーグルは中国当局の要求に従うか、この世界最大の市場から撤退するかの2つに1つだ。西洋人は中国政府の統制を「恐れ」によるものと解釈しているが、それは違う。中国人にとって国家とは「社会の化身」であり「守護者」でもある。中華文明を完全な形で継承することが、国の最も重要な政治任務で神聖な使命なのだ。
中国が米国を抜いて世界最大の経済国家になることは、もはや時間の問題。中国が支配する新しい世界では中国人の考え方（儒教的な思想から国家観、家庭のあり方や子供の養育に関してまで）が主流になってくる。我々は早いうちからその本質を知るべきだ。そうすれば、もっと上手く中国と付き合えるようになるだろう。
By Martin Jacques | NEWSWEEK
Published Jan 16, 2010
From the magazine issue dated Jan 25, 2010
The blunt truth is that most Western forecasters have been wrong about China for the past 30 years. They have claimed that Chinese economic growth was exaggerated, that a big crisis was imminent, that state controls would fade away, and that exposure to global media, notably the Internet, would steadily undermine the Communist Party's authority. The reason why China forecasting has such a poor track record is that Westerners constantly invoke the model and experience of the West to explain China, and it is a false prophet. Until we start trying to understand China on its own terms, rather than as a Western-style nation in the making, we will continue to get it wrong.
The Google affair tells us much about what China is and what it will be like. The Internet has been seen in the West as the quintessential expression of the free exchange of ideas and information, untrammeled by government interference and increasingly global in reach. But the Chinese government has shown that the Internet can be successfully filtered and controlled. Google's mission, "to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful," has clashed with the age-old presumption of Chinese rulers of the need and responsibility to control. In this battle, there will be only one winner: China. Google will be obliged either to accept Chinese regulations or exit the world's largest Internet market, with serious consequences for its long-term global ambitions. This is a metaphor for our times: America's most dynamic company cannot take on the Chinese government—even on an issue like free and open information—and win.
Moreover, as China becomes increasingly important as a market and player, what happens to the Internet in China will have profound consequences for the Internet globally. It is already clear that the Google model of a free and open Internet, an exemplar of the American idea of the future, cannot and will not prevail. China's Internet will continue to be policed and controlled, information filtered, sites prohibited, noncompliant search engines excluded, and sensitive search words disallowed. And where China goes, others, also informed by different values, are already and will follow. The Internet, far from being a great big unified global space, will be fragmented and segmented. Another Western shibboleth about the future will thereby fall. It will not signal the end of the free flow of information—notwithstanding all the controls, the Internet has transformed the volume and quality of information available to Chinese citizens—but it will take place more on Chinese than Western terms.
Click here to find out more!
If we want to understand the future, we need to go back to the drawing board. China—as we can see with increasing clarity—is destined to become the world's largest economy and is likely in time to far outdistance the U.S. This process will remorselessly shift the balance of power in China's favor. Just as once a large share of the American market was a precondition for a firm being a major global player, this mantle will increasingly be assumed instead by the Chinese market, except to a far greater extent because its population is four times the size. Furthermore, China's expanding economic clout means that its government is enjoying rapidly growing global authority. It can even take on Google and be sure of victory.
Facing up to the fact that China is very different from the West, that it simply does not work or think like us, is proving far more difficult. A classic illustration is the West's failure to understand the strength and durability of the Chinese state, which defies all predictions of its demise, remains omnipresent in Chinese lives, still owns most major firms, and proves remarkably adept at finding new ways to counter the influence of the U.S. global media. Western observers typically explain the intrusiveness of the Chinese government in terms of paranoia—and in a huge and diverse country the rulers have always seen instability as an ever-present danger—but there is a deeper reason why the state enjoys such a high-profile role in Chinese society.
It is seen by the Chinese not as an alien presence to be constantly pruned back, as in the West, especially the U.S., but as the embodiment and guardian of society. Rather than alien, it is seen as an intimate, in the manner of the head of the household. It might seem an extraordinary proposition, but the Chinese state enjoys a remarkable legitimacy among its people, greater than in Western societies. And the reason lies deep in China's history. China may call itself a nation-state (although only for the past century), but in essence it is a civilization-state dating back at least two millennia. Maintaining the unity of Chinese civilization is regarded as the most important political priority and seen as the sacred task of the state, hence its unique role: there is no Western parallel.
Chinese modernity will not resemble Western modernity, and a world dominated by China will not resemble our own. One consequence is already apparent in the developing world: the state is back in fashion; the Washington Consensus has been eclipsed. In this new world, Chinese ways of thinking—from Confucian values and their notion of the state to the family and parenting—will become increasingly influential. Google's fate is a sign of the world to come, and the sooner we come to appreciate the nature of a world run by China, the better we will be able to deal with it.
Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order.
---------------
“未来の支配者”中国と敵対する者にチャンスはない
2010年1月25日、米誌ニューズウィークは「中国と敵対する者にはいかなるチャンスもない」と題した記事でグーグルの中国撤退問題に触れ、「戦いの勝者は中国だ」と論じた。以下はその内容。
過去30年、西側の中国に関する予測は十中八九間違っていた。これは疑いの余地がない事実である。西側メディアは、「中国経済の成長率は誇張されたもの」「国の統制力に陰りが見え始めている」「海外メディアの報道が中国共産党の権力を弱らせている」などと報じて来たが、これらはすべて西洋人の考え方に基づいたものに過ぎない。
インターネットは、西洋では「思想と情報の自由な交換」の象徴と見られてきたが、中国政府はこれを効果的に制御できることを世間に知らしめた。グーグルの「世界中の情報を取りまとめ、誰もが簡単にアクセスして有益な情報が得られる」という理念は、中国の統治者が抱く「統制の必要と責任」という古い観念と衝突した。
だが、この戦いの勝者は「中国」以外にない。グーグルは中国当局の要求に従うか、この世界最大の市場から撤退するかの2つに1つだ。西洋人は中国政府の統制を「恐れ」によるものと解釈しているが、それは違う。中国人にとって国家とは「社会の化身」であり「守護者」でもある。中華文明を完全な形で継承することが、国の最も重要な政治任務で神聖な使命なのだ。
中国が米国を抜いて世界最大の経済国家になることは、もはや時間の問題。中国が支配する新しい世界では中国人の考え方（儒教的な思想から国家観、家庭のあり方や子供の養育に関してまで）が主流になってくる。我々は早いうちからその本質を知るべきだ。そうすれば、もっと上手く中国と付き合えるようになるだろう。
2010-01-04
中韓的成功、日本的失敗——數碼產品在中國
在中國大陸的數碼產品銷售排行榜上，除數碼相機外，其他日系產品均排在末位甚至難上排行榜，讓中國與韓系產品獨領風騷。日本手機更是被趕出中國大陸市場！以技術性能著稱于世的日本數碼產品為什么在中國大陸的銷售難盡人意？讓我們嘗試從中日韓三國的文化背景和思維差異來探討這一技術問題。
中日韓三國，均地處東亞地區，同屬“漢字文化圈”，具有同質或近似的文化遺產，共同承襲了發源于中國的儒家文化，在過去的歷史時期和很多領域一直保持著相互交流和友好往來。進入近代以后，面對西方文化的浸入，三國出現了不同的反響，尤其隨著全球化潮流蔓延，三國在技術發展與產品營銷方面出現了截然不同的走勢。
韓國成功＝文化營銷＋投資
沒有人否認，產品銷售的背后有深刻的文化因素，目前在中國，如果做個調查，你會吃驚地發現幾乎每個家庭都有一個人熱衷于韓劇！很多家庭成員對韓劇如數家珍，對劇情了如指掌。而巧合的是，在上世紀80年代中期，中國家庭熱衷于觀看日本連續劇，當時的《血疑》、《排球女將》和《姿三四郎》等電視連續劇在中國可謂舉國熱播，人人爭相觀看，當時，正式電視機嶄露頭腳的時代，因此，毫無懸念，日本的索尼、東芝、三洋等電視機在中國熱銷。
而今，韓劇熱播中國，巧合的是，韓國數碼產品熱銷中國，韓國三星、LG等數碼產品成為中國消費者的最愛，數據顯示，2004年，三星集團在華銷售額達到100億美元，2006年，三星電子全球總銷售額為634億美元，其中，在華銷售額達到297億美元。2007年，三星集團在華銷售超過360億美元，增幅20％！同時，三星也加大了在中國的投入，目前，三星在華投資已經超過60億美元！僅僅3年時間，三星集團在華銷售就增長了260％！
30多年前，三星集團是為日本三洋代工黑白電視機一個小廠，1988年，在成為漢城奧運會贊助商后，三星從此踏上文化營銷的道路，而三星也一躍從不知名的小品牌變成國際知名品牌，三星從此摘掉低端帽子，躍居高端電子設備制造商行列。這其中，除了三星努力創新，提升技術含量外，文化營銷起了很大的作用。
韓劇熱播中國，不但將韓國文化傳播至中國，在一定程度上提升了韓國數碼產品品牌，更對韓國手機、MP3、數碼相機等產品加強了營銷。一個很有意思的現象是，中國互聯網上經常有消費者對韓劇中主人公使用的手機進行分析，無形中對手機銷售起了推廣作用。這個網頁（http://info.china.alibaba.com/news/detail/v3000100-d1002942597-p1.html）就對韓劇中使用的三星手機進行了分析。《我的名字叫金三順》男主角三石使用的一款三星SCH-B100。
除了文化營銷外，韓國企業在華加大投資建立和中國政府緊密的關系也起到一定的作用，目前三星集團已經在華投資超過60億美元，在華設立的機構有28家生產線，30家營銷法人，雇傭員工數量達到5萬4千多人，業務涉及電子、金融、造船、服裝和貿易等諸多領域。而相反，日本企業在華投資還在持謹慎態度，日本貿易振興機構北京代表處首席代表柴生田敦夫近日在北京表示日本企業認為在中國投資主要存在三大問題：第一是法律制度的不完善以及運用方面的問題；第二個是知識產權保護方面的問題；第三個是稅務風險的問題。這三個問題占回答問卷企業的比例分別是：59.9%；59.2%，33.2%。
中國的成功＝開放的心態＋成本創新
1434年，明朝的皇帝解散了鄭和率領的船隊，結束了海上貿易，開始閉關鎖國。從此，一個全球第一大經濟實體走向衰落，在西方國家開始第一次、第二次工業革命的時候，中國一直在戰亂和動蕩中徘徊。1978年，這個龐大的農業大國開始了改革開放，而且選擇的道路是從農村到城市，2001年，中國加入WTO，從此，中國開始大規模市場開放，開放程度甚至超過日本和韓國，2006年，中國一躍成為全球第三大貿易國。
也許談得有點跑題，但是，我們不能否認，完全開放的心態是中國數碼產品營銷成功的原因之一，因為開放，本土制造商可以放棄自己的固有思維，可以虛心地學習歐美日韓廠商先進的設計技術和開發經驗，可以認真地去了解用戶的需求，而這些，在日韓廠商中是不多見的。
中國廠商另一個重要的成功因素是成本創新！光有開放的心態還不夠，中國廠商的絕活就是成本創新！在日益扁平的世界中，中國廠商可以方便地將外國的新技術和本土消費者的需求結合起來，例如海爾公司推出了可以洗地瓜的洗衣機。但這還不夠，中國廠商可以用低成本的方式來生產所創新的電子產品。
2007年，中國的“山寨手機”銷量達到近2000萬部！同樣配置的日韓手機，在中國售價如果在3000元左右，如果被“山寨”后，其售價僅為400 元左右！這是很多歐美日韓企業難以想象的，“中國企業為什么可以造出如此低成本的手機？”很多人認為是偷工減料，其實不然。中國制造商推出的酷似 iphone的“桔子”手機。
據很多山寨機用戶反映，山寨機使用和品牌機差別并不大，而且隨著數碼產品生命周期不斷縮短，花大價錢買高檔機的做法已經逐漸被大多數人放棄，很多人追求的性價比，這正是中國數碼產品制造商成功的精髓。
曾鳴教授在《龍行天下――中國制造未來10年新格局》（英文名：Dragons at your door）一書中指出：“中國的的自主創新更多是通過應用型技術創新實現性價比的飛躍，以低成本的方式進行技術創新，以技術創新的方式降低成本，這將成為未來全球競爭的核心！”
毫無疑問，中國制造商找到了改變競爭格局的法寶，全球的競爭規則已經改變，中國制造商與時俱進的心態讓他們抓住了這個變革帶來的機遇。
日本的敗北，如何才能成功？
提起日本電器，全世界消費者的第一感受是性能一流！這是日本企業多年在質量精益求精、追求卓越的結果，很可惜，這也日本數碼產品敗北的一個原因。因為就消費群體而言，只有極少數人追求高質量高性能，大多數人追求的是性價比。這和以前的產品價值觀相比已經大相徑庭。
隨著集成電路技術的飛速發展，IC的集成度和可靠性日益提高，和以前分立產品的數碼設備相比，目前數碼產品的壽命大大延長，甚至很多產品還未出現質量問題就被淘汰甚至被遺棄，這樣一味地追求質量而忽視性價比就實際上與中國消費者的需求南轅北轍了。所以無怪乎在中國的數碼產品消費中，只有索尼等幾家公司的產品在高端產品上占據一定的名次。
但是，歷來高端消費者總是少數，所以在MP3整體消費排行中，日本企業的MP3被踢出了前10。
除了要改變對產品價值取向外，日本企業另一個敗北中國市場的原因是不了解中國用戶的需求。日本的數碼廠商很少認真了解中國消費者的群體分布以及需求分析，也缺少明確的目標消費群體，韓國手機可以瞄準中國喜歡韓劇的白領一族，中國的山寨機瞄準希望享受高科技的農村群體，而日本數碼產品的目標群體在哪里呢？
當然，文化因素也是日本企業敗北中國市場的一個重要因素，由于近代中日兩國的恩怨，中國民眾在消費電子產品時，也會考慮產品的產地。往往在日本政府參拜靖國神社后，中國市場就會發生大規模的抵制日貨活動，這樣也影響了日本產品的銷售。
不過，經過“5.12大地震”后，很多中國國民對日本政府和企業積極的援救行動給予了高度贊許和肯定，中日民眾之間的隔閡也因此大為緩和。
奧美中國與華通明略于近日發布的名為《中國的民族主義及其對品牌的影響》的研究顯示，奧運前后在中國出現的民族主義情緒高昂，將會對品牌營銷者帶來前所未有的挑戰。他們的調查發現中國大陸84%的受訪者表示他們從現在起會購買更多的中國品牌。
那么，日本數碼制造商該如何在中國成功？首先，除了日本政府要加強彌合消融兩國的積怨外，日本企業應以開放的心態加強和中國企業的合作，將日本企業的頂尖技術帶到中國，另外，在數碼產品的研發上，選定中國特定的消費群體，了解他們的真正需求，畢竟，日本企業有多年優秀的工業設計沉淀，把這些需求和工業設計結合，必定可以推出受到目標群體推崇的數碼產品。08年在日本廣受歡迎的夏普手機決定重回中國市場，但愿日本的數碼產品能在中國市場迎來新的發展機遇。
作者簡介：張國斌，電子創新網CEO，曾經擔任中國知名電子媒體《電子工程專輯》網絡版主編，撰寫過大量關于中國半導體產業分析的文章。
中日韓三國，均地處東亞地區，同屬“漢字文化圈”，具有同質或近似的文化遺產，共同承襲了發源于中國的儒家文化，在過去的歷史時期和很多領域一直保持著相互交流和友好往來。進入近代以后，面對西方文化的浸入，三國出現了不同的反響，尤其隨著全球化潮流蔓延，三國在技術發展與產品營銷方面出現了截然不同的走勢。
韓國成功＝文化營銷＋投資
沒有人否認，產品銷售的背后有深刻的文化因素，目前在中國，如果做個調查，你會吃驚地發現幾乎每個家庭都有一個人熱衷于韓劇！很多家庭成員對韓劇如數家珍，對劇情了如指掌。而巧合的是，在上世紀80年代中期，中國家庭熱衷于觀看日本連續劇，當時的《血疑》、《排球女將》和《姿三四郎》等電視連續劇在中國可謂舉國熱播，人人爭相觀看，當時，正式電視機嶄露頭腳的時代，因此，毫無懸念，日本的索尼、東芝、三洋等電視機在中國熱銷。
而今，韓劇熱播中國，巧合的是，韓國數碼產品熱銷中國，韓國三星、LG等數碼產品成為中國消費者的最愛，數據顯示，2004年，三星集團在華銷售額達到100億美元，2006年，三星電子全球總銷售額為634億美元，其中，在華銷售額達到297億美元。2007年，三星集團在華銷售超過360億美元，增幅20％！同時，三星也加大了在中國的投入，目前，三星在華投資已經超過60億美元！僅僅3年時間，三星集團在華銷售就增長了260％！
30多年前，三星集團是為日本三洋代工黑白電視機一個小廠，1988年，在成為漢城奧運會贊助商后，三星從此踏上文化營銷的道路，而三星也一躍從不知名的小品牌變成國際知名品牌，三星從此摘掉低端帽子，躍居高端電子設備制造商行列。這其中，除了三星努力創新，提升技術含量外，文化營銷起了很大的作用。
韓劇熱播中國，不但將韓國文化傳播至中國，在一定程度上提升了韓國數碼產品品牌，更對韓國手機、MP3、數碼相機等產品加強了營銷。一個很有意思的現象是，中國互聯網上經常有消費者對韓劇中主人公使用的手機進行分析，無形中對手機銷售起了推廣作用。這個網頁（http://info.china.alibaba.com/news/detail/v3000100-d1002942597-p1.html）就對韓劇中使用的三星手機進行了分析。《我的名字叫金三順》男主角三石使用的一款三星SCH-B100。
除了文化營銷外，韓國企業在華加大投資建立和中國政府緊密的關系也起到一定的作用，目前三星集團已經在華投資超過60億美元，在華設立的機構有28家生產線，30家營銷法人，雇傭員工數量達到5萬4千多人，業務涉及電子、金融、造船、服裝和貿易等諸多領域。而相反，日本企業在華投資還在持謹慎態度，日本貿易振興機構北京代表處首席代表柴生田敦夫近日在北京表示日本企業認為在中國投資主要存在三大問題：第一是法律制度的不完善以及運用方面的問題；第二個是知識產權保護方面的問題；第三個是稅務風險的問題。這三個問題占回答問卷企業的比例分別是：59.9%；59.2%，33.2%。
中國的成功＝開放的心態＋成本創新
1434年，明朝的皇帝解散了鄭和率領的船隊，結束了海上貿易，開始閉關鎖國。從此，一個全球第一大經濟實體走向衰落，在西方國家開始第一次、第二次工業革命的時候，中國一直在戰亂和動蕩中徘徊。1978年，這個龐大的農業大國開始了改革開放，而且選擇的道路是從農村到城市，2001年，中國加入WTO，從此，中國開始大規模市場開放，開放程度甚至超過日本和韓國，2006年，中國一躍成為全球第三大貿易國。
也許談得有點跑題，但是，我們不能否認，完全開放的心態是中國數碼產品營銷成功的原因之一，因為開放，本土制造商可以放棄自己的固有思維，可以虛心地學習歐美日韓廠商先進的設計技術和開發經驗，可以認真地去了解用戶的需求，而這些，在日韓廠商中是不多見的。
中國廠商另一個重要的成功因素是成本創新！光有開放的心態還不夠，中國廠商的絕活就是成本創新！在日益扁平的世界中，中國廠商可以方便地將外國的新技術和本土消費者的需求結合起來，例如海爾公司推出了可以洗地瓜的洗衣機。但這還不夠，中國廠商可以用低成本的方式來生產所創新的電子產品。
2007年，中國的“山寨手機”銷量達到近2000萬部！同樣配置的日韓手機，在中國售價如果在3000元左右，如果被“山寨”后，其售價僅為400 元左右！這是很多歐美日韓企業難以想象的，“中國企業為什么可以造出如此低成本的手機？”很多人認為是偷工減料，其實不然。中國制造商推出的酷似 iphone的“桔子”手機。
據很多山寨機用戶反映，山寨機使用和品牌機差別并不大，而且隨著數碼產品生命周期不斷縮短，花大價錢買高檔機的做法已經逐漸被大多數人放棄，很多人追求的性價比，這正是中國數碼產品制造商成功的精髓。
曾鳴教授在《龍行天下――中國制造未來10年新格局》（英文名：Dragons at your door）一書中指出：“中國的的自主創新更多是通過應用型技術創新實現性價比的飛躍，以低成本的方式進行技術創新，以技術創新的方式降低成本，這將成為未來全球競爭的核心！”
毫無疑問，中國制造商找到了改變競爭格局的法寶，全球的競爭規則已經改變，中國制造商與時俱進的心態讓他們抓住了這個變革帶來的機遇。
日本的敗北，如何才能成功？
提起日本電器，全世界消費者的第一感受是性能一流！這是日本企業多年在質量精益求精、追求卓越的結果，很可惜，這也日本數碼產品敗北的一個原因。因為就消費群體而言，只有極少數人追求高質量高性能，大多數人追求的是性價比。這和以前的產品價值觀相比已經大相徑庭。
隨著集成電路技術的飛速發展，IC的集成度和可靠性日益提高，和以前分立產品的數碼設備相比，目前數碼產品的壽命大大延長，甚至很多產品還未出現質量問題就被淘汰甚至被遺棄，這樣一味地追求質量而忽視性價比就實際上與中國消費者的需求南轅北轍了。所以無怪乎在中國的數碼產品消費中，只有索尼等幾家公司的產品在高端產品上占據一定的名次。
但是，歷來高端消費者總是少數，所以在MP3整體消費排行中，日本企業的MP3被踢出了前10。
除了要改變對產品價值取向外，日本企業另一個敗北中國市場的原因是不了解中國用戶的需求。日本的數碼廠商很少認真了解中國消費者的群體分布以及需求分析，也缺少明確的目標消費群體，韓國手機可以瞄準中國喜歡韓劇的白領一族，中國的山寨機瞄準希望享受高科技的農村群體，而日本數碼產品的目標群體在哪里呢？
當然，文化因素也是日本企業敗北中國市場的一個重要因素，由于近代中日兩國的恩怨，中國民眾在消費電子產品時，也會考慮產品的產地。往往在日本政府參拜靖國神社后，中國市場就會發生大規模的抵制日貨活動，這樣也影響了日本產品的銷售。
不過，經過“5.12大地震”后，很多中國國民對日本政府和企業積極的援救行動給予了高度贊許和肯定，中日民眾之間的隔閡也因此大為緩和。
奧美中國與華通明略于近日發布的名為《中國的民族主義及其對品牌的影響》的研究顯示，奧運前后在中國出現的民族主義情緒高昂，將會對品牌營銷者帶來前所未有的挑戰。他們的調查發現中國大陸84%的受訪者表示他們從現在起會購買更多的中國品牌。
那么，日本數碼制造商該如何在中國成功？首先，除了日本政府要加強彌合消融兩國的積怨外，日本企業應以開放的心態加強和中國企業的合作，將日本企業的頂尖技術帶到中國，另外，在數碼產品的研發上，選定中國特定的消費群體，了解他們的真正需求，畢竟，日本企業有多年優秀的工業設計沉淀，把這些需求和工業設計結合，必定可以推出受到目標群體推崇的數碼產品。08年在日本廣受歡迎的夏普手機決定重回中國市場，但愿日本的數碼產品能在中國市場迎來新的發展機遇。
作者簡介：張國斌，電子創新網CEO，曾經擔任中國知名電子媒體《電子工程專輯》網絡版主編，撰寫過大量關于中國半導體產業分析的文章。
Seven businesses to look out for in 2010
In January of 2008, dreading the idea of a cliche "prediction" post, I wrote a post that attempted to somewhat humorously outline seven businesses that would result from the then nascent cloud computing movement. As I look back at that post this year, I'm surprised to find myself thinking that most--if not all--of these should appear in one form or another in the coming year.
Here's the list, with my updated commentary from this year in italics:
1.SaaS<-->Enterprise data conversion practice: All those existing enterprise apps will need to have their data migrated to that trendy new SaaS tool; and should anyone actually decide they hate their first vendor, they'll be spending that money again to convert to the next choice. Perhaps they'll even get fed up and return to traditional enterprise software. Easy money.
This item was confronting the unfortunate truth that most SaaS options are built on proprietary (or "single platform", in the case of open source) database schemas. That fact alone means that getting enterprise data out of that highly customized on-premise HR application and into the cloud will take some real technical skill, as will changing or reversing that decision. I still believe that this will be a major portion of systems integrator revenue around SaaS adoption, especially for "commodity" functions like HR and finance.
2.Enterprise Integration as a Service: No matter how much functionality one SaaS vendor will provide, it will never be enough. Integration will always be necessary, but where/how will it be delivered? Go for the gold with a browser based integration option. Just figure out how to do it better/cheaper/faster than force.com, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc...
There have been some good attempts at moving EAI into the cloud (see Boomi(http://www.boomi.com/)), but I think this is the year that we will see enterprise class offerings from IBM, Microsoft, and others make their debut. I also wouldn't be surprised if Amazon or Salesforce.com didn't have something up their sleeves here. It's just too important a platform to ignore.
3.SaaS meter consolidation service: Given the problem stated in number two above, who wants five or six bills where its impossible to trace the cost of a transaction across vendors? Provide a single billing service that consolidates the charges of the vendor stable and provides additional analytic capabilities to break down where costs and revenues come from. Then get ready to defend yourself against the data ownership walls put up by those same vendors (see four below).
This is probably the offering I am least sure will appear in 2010, but there are some signs that people understand the challenge. If you have an application with its front end running on Google App Engine, its business logic on Force.com, and its data analysis on Amazon Web Services, will there be a way to track the costs of that application through a single invoice? I'd like to think the telecoms have an advantage here(http://news.cnet.com/8301-19413_3-10310644-240.html), but they seemingly remain blind to it.
4.(Cloud) Customer litigation practice: Given the example of Scoble's experience with Facebook, there are clearly a lot of sticky legal issues to be worked out about "who owns what." Ride that gravy train with litigation expertise in data ownership, vendor contractual obligations and the role of code as law.
As 2008 began, Robert Scoble had his Facebook account shut down for running an automated script to harvest his social network data from that service. The uproar that followed demonstrated one of the truly sticky subjects of cloud computing: who owns and governs the data residing in a public cloud service?
Unfortunately, that question remains unanswered, leaving me to believe there are still a few landmark court cases yet to appear in U.S., EU, and worldwide courts. Of course, today I would probably add cloud malpractice litigators to the mix...
5.SaaS industry (or SaaS customer) data ownership rights lobbyist: Given 4 above, each industry player is going to want their voice in Congress to protect/promote their interest. Drive the next set of legislation that screws up online equality and individual rights.
While some would argue with me, I think there is a huge policy battle around cloud waiting in the wings, and I know for a fact that several large cloud providers are already lining up lobbyists to drive policy beneficial to their businesses. I am not yet aware of consumer or enterprise focused lobbying, but I believe strongly it is only a matter of time.
6.Sys Admin retraining specialist: All those sys admins who will be out of work thanks to cloud computing are going to need to be retrained to monitor SLAs across external vendor properties, and to get good at waiting on hold for customer service representatives.
In point of fact, "retraining" of sys admins is already happening, though mostly through a combination of voluntary experimentation with cloud services, active projects, and the effects of virtualization on the data center. However, new technologies that make the cloud hum for a sys admin, like Puppet(http://reductivelabs.com/products/puppet/) and Chef(http://wiki.opscode.com/display/chef/Home), will introduce opportunities to offer courses in advanced applications. Add to this the training in architectures and operations that developers now require to really excel at cloud computing, and you have a terrific business opportunity.
7.Handset recycling services: The rate at which "specialized" hardware will evolve will raise the rate of obsolescence to a new high. Somebody is going to make a killing from all those barely used precious metals, silicon, and LCD screens going to waste. Why not you?
Of course, there are already a variety of charities(http://www.phonescoop.com/articles/article.php?a=29&p=1359) and businesses(http://recyclemycellphone.org/) playing in this space. However, two facts are important to note: much of the charity work benefits developing countries, and the rate of obsolescence for cell phone technology hasn't slowed one iota.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting that these businesses are a shoe-in. On the contrary, I think the form that ANY of these businesses take will likely surprise most of us. However, as I look ahead at 2010, it's amazing to me how many of the unsolved problems of 2008 are only just now getting addressed. To those of you addressing them, good luck in 2010.
James Urquhart is a seasoned field technologist with almost 20 years of experience in distributed systems development and deployment, focusing on service-oriented architectures, cloud computing, and virtualization. James is currently market manager for the Data Center 3.0 strategy at Cisco Systems, though the opinions expressed here are strictly his own. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET.
Here's the list, with my updated commentary from this year in italics:
1.SaaS<-->Enterprise data conversion practice: All those existing enterprise apps will need to have their data migrated to that trendy new SaaS tool; and should anyone actually decide they hate their first vendor, they'll be spending that money again to convert to the next choice. Perhaps they'll even get fed up and return to traditional enterprise software. Easy money.
This item was confronting the unfortunate truth that most SaaS options are built on proprietary (or "single platform", in the case of open source) database schemas. That fact alone means that getting enterprise data out of that highly customized on-premise HR application and into the cloud will take some real technical skill, as will changing or reversing that decision. I still believe that this will be a major portion of systems integrator revenue around SaaS adoption, especially for "commodity" functions like HR and finance.
2.Enterprise Integration as a Service: No matter how much functionality one SaaS vendor will provide, it will never be enough. Integration will always be necessary, but where/how will it be delivered? Go for the gold with a browser based integration option. Just figure out how to do it better/cheaper/faster than force.com, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc...
There have been some good attempts at moving EAI into the cloud (see Boomi(http://www.boomi.com/)), but I think this is the year that we will see enterprise class offerings from IBM, Microsoft, and others make their debut. I also wouldn't be surprised if Amazon or Salesforce.com didn't have something up their sleeves here. It's just too important a platform to ignore.
3.SaaS meter consolidation service: Given the problem stated in number two above, who wants five or six bills where its impossible to trace the cost of a transaction across vendors? Provide a single billing service that consolidates the charges of the vendor stable and provides additional analytic capabilities to break down where costs and revenues come from. Then get ready to defend yourself against the data ownership walls put up by those same vendors (see four below).
This is probably the offering I am least sure will appear in 2010, but there are some signs that people understand the challenge. If you have an application with its front end running on Google App Engine, its business logic on Force.com, and its data analysis on Amazon Web Services, will there be a way to track the costs of that application through a single invoice? I'd like to think the telecoms have an advantage here(http://news.cnet.com/8301-19413_3-10310644-240.html), but they seemingly remain blind to it.
4.(Cloud) Customer litigation practice: Given the example of Scoble's experience with Facebook, there are clearly a lot of sticky legal issues to be worked out about "who owns what." Ride that gravy train with litigation expertise in data ownership, vendor contractual obligations and the role of code as law.
As 2008 began, Robert Scoble had his Facebook account shut down for running an automated script to harvest his social network data from that service. The uproar that followed demonstrated one of the truly sticky subjects of cloud computing: who owns and governs the data residing in a public cloud service?
Unfortunately, that question remains unanswered, leaving me to believe there are still a few landmark court cases yet to appear in U.S., EU, and worldwide courts. Of course, today I would probably add cloud malpractice litigators to the mix...
5.SaaS industry (or SaaS customer) data ownership rights lobbyist: Given 4 above, each industry player is going to want their voice in Congress to protect/promote their interest. Drive the next set of legislation that screws up online equality and individual rights.
While some would argue with me, I think there is a huge policy battle around cloud waiting in the wings, and I know for a fact that several large cloud providers are already lining up lobbyists to drive policy beneficial to their businesses. I am not yet aware of consumer or enterprise focused lobbying, but I believe strongly it is only a matter of time.
6.Sys Admin retraining specialist: All those sys admins who will be out of work thanks to cloud computing are going to need to be retrained to monitor SLAs across external vendor properties, and to get good at waiting on hold for customer service representatives.
In point of fact, "retraining" of sys admins is already happening, though mostly through a combination of voluntary experimentation with cloud services, active projects, and the effects of virtualization on the data center. However, new technologies that make the cloud hum for a sys admin, like Puppet(http://reductivelabs.com/products/puppet/) and Chef(http://wiki.opscode.com/display/chef/Home), will introduce opportunities to offer courses in advanced applications. Add to this the training in architectures and operations that developers now require to really excel at cloud computing, and you have a terrific business opportunity.
7.Handset recycling services: The rate at which "specialized" hardware will evolve will raise the rate of obsolescence to a new high. Somebody is going to make a killing from all those barely used precious metals, silicon, and LCD screens going to waste. Why not you?
Of course, there are already a variety of charities(http://www.phonescoop.com/articles/article.php?a=29&p=1359) and businesses(http://recyclemycellphone.org/) playing in this space. However, two facts are important to note: much of the charity work benefits developing countries, and the rate of obsolescence for cell phone technology hasn't slowed one iota.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not predicting that these businesses are a shoe-in. On the contrary, I think the form that ANY of these businesses take will likely surprise most of us. However, as I look ahead at 2010, it's amazing to me how many of the unsolved problems of 2008 are only just now getting addressed. To those of you addressing them, good luck in 2010.
James Urquhart is a seasoned field technologist with almost 20 years of experience in distributed systems development and deployment, focusing on service-oriented architectures, cloud computing, and virtualization. James is currently market manager for the Data Center 3.0 strategy at Cisco Systems, though the opinions expressed here are strictly his own. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET.
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